FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY

The FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function is utilized to estimate the seasonality of a time series data set. This function is particularly useful in forecasting models where identifying and accounting for seasonal patterns is crucial for accurate predictions.

Syntax

=FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY(values, timeline, data)

values The array or range of observed values in the time series data.
timeline The array or range representing the timeline or sequence of dates/times corresponding to the observed values.
data Optional. Additional data series that might help improve the accuracy of the forecast.

About FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY

In the realm of time series analysis and forecasting, the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function emerges as a powerful tool for unraveling the seasonal intricacies hidden within the data. This function proves invaluable when facing fluctuating patterns that repeat at regular intervals, such as quarterly sales spikes or annual demand shifts. By estimating the seasonality of a time series, one gains a deeper understanding of the underlying trends, paving the way for more precise predictive models and strategic decision-making processes. Leveraging the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function contributes to enhanced forecasting accuracy, especially in scenarios where seasonal variations exert a significant impact on the data dynamics and trends. The incorporation of additional data series further refines the forecast results, enriching the analysis and broadening the scope of insights provided by the function.

Examples

Suppose you have sales data for the past three years, with monthly observations and corresponding dates. To estimate the seasonal patterns present in the sales data, use the following formula for the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function: =FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY(A2:A37, B2:B37)

Imagine analyzing website traffic data over the course of a year, including daily visit numbers and the respective dates. To better understand the seasonal variations within the traffic patterns, apply the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function with the appropriate data series incorporated for a comprehensive forecast analysis.

Questions

How does the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function contribute to forecasting accuracy?

The FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function aids in forecasting accuracy by estimating and incorporating seasonal patterns present in the time series data. By identifying and accounting for these recurring trends, the function enhances the predictive capabilities of forecasting models, resulting in more precise future projections.

Can the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function handle irregularly spaced data points in the time series?

No, the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function requires the timeline data to be sequential and equidistant. It is designed to analyze seasonal patterns in time series data with regular intervals between observations.

How can additional data series improve the accuracy of seasonality estimation with the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function?

Incorporating additional data series in the FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY function can enhance the accuracy of seasonality estimation by providing complementary information that can refine the seasonal patterns identified in the primary time series data. These supplementary data sets contribute to a more holistic and nuanced analysis, contributing to more robust forecasting outcomes.

Related functions

FORECAST.ETS
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT
FORECAST.ETS.LINEAR
FORECAST.ETS.STAT
FORECAST.LINEAR