FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT

The FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function calculates the confidence interval for a forecasted value in a time series. It estimates the range within which the actual value is likely to fall, considering data volatility and uncertainty.

Syntax 🔗

=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(target_date, values, data, probability, confidence_interval)

target_date The date for which you want to forecast a value.
values The array or range of known values in the time series.
data The array or range of known timeline values corresponding to the values.
probability The probability used to calculate the confidence interval (between 0 and 1).
confidence_interval The confidence level percentage for the interval (between 0 and 1).

About FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT 🔗

The FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function in Excel helps you predict future values based on historical data and assess the uncertainty of these predictions with confidence intervals. This feature provides insights into the reliability of your forecasts, supporting informed decision-making and risk management. The confidence interval indicates a range within which the actual value is likely to fall, accounting for variability and potential deviations from the predicted outcome.

Examples 🔗

You have a dataset with historical stock prices for a company. To forecast the stock price for a specific future date and obtain the confidence interval, use the FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function. This function helps you generate a forecast and provides a confidence interval, giving you a view on the potential range of the estimated value.

Notes 🔗

When using the FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function, ensure that your input data is structured correctly with matching timeline values. Select the probability and confidence level carefully to meet your forecasting needs. Remember, the confidence interval results offer an estimate of the expected range, not a guaranteed outcome. Adjust the parameters as needed to refine your forecast and capture the details of the time series data.

Questions 🔗

How does the FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function contribute to time series forecasting?

The FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function enhances time series forecasting by incorporating confidence intervals into the predicted values. This inclusion offers a probabilistic outlook on the anticipated range within which the actual value is likely to fall, enriching the forecasting process with uncertainty assessment and risk evaluation.

What role does the probability parameter play in the FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function?

The probability parameter in the FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function determines the probability level used to calculate the confidence interval. By adjusting this value within the permissible range of 0 to 1, users can customize the confidence assessment to suit their forecasting needs and risk tolerance.

Can the confidence interval percentage be modified in the FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT function?

Yes, users can adjust the confidence level percentage for the interval by specifying the desired value in the confidence_interval parameter. This customization empowers individuals to tailor the width and significance of the confidence interval based on the specific forecasting scenario and decision-making requirements.

FORECAST.ETS
FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY

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